At the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic, some politicians, leaders and top doctors (official medical officers, who are ironically called top doctors) promised to flatten the death curve of this virus. But now more than 6 months since the first reported cases in China, the virus massacre continues widely and ragingly all across the globe. On a similar note, the promises of discovery of vaccines against COVID all proved to be sham and perhaps for some pharmaceutical companies to raise their stock prices. The world, particularly the western societies continue with their closure of may domains of life and social/physical distancing and literally have lock-downed or prisoned their own people for no good reason. The ignorant and agnostic leaders still assume that this coronavirus is spread person-to-person, while they never use their common sense that how this way the virus could have reached this pandemic level globally even in every little islands and villages.
The focus is still on the number of cases that only show those who have been tested. How could the real total infected number of people across the world be determined, while majority of the infected people that perhaps now has reached more than 50% of the whole world population, they have not been tested. As we all know by now the COVID infection could hold a range from asymptomatic to mild, moderate, severe and fatal. We also might and if not, we should learn that this coronavirus like its common-cold sister viruses could have a wide range of symptoms and not limited to cough, fever and chest pain that the authorities through media keep repeating. The COVID could have other symptoms such as headache, generalized body ache, fatigue, lethargy, nausea, vomiting and other respiratory and GI symptoms. Personally checking with many of my own patients and colleagues, many of them recall having caught such range of symptoms over the past few months without having been tested or knowing that they had been infected with COVID.
The statistics of the countries, WHO, John Hopkins University and now the popular website of “Worldometer.info” are at times deceiving and not accurate. For example on May 17, when the previous article was written and data copied from the above website that is more or less similar to the John Hopkins’, the number of deaths in Spain was cited to be “27,650” and now today June 7, the total death number in this country is less and “27,135” instead of going higher in over two weeks! Moreover the calculated death rates that the projected total death by August in the previous article was based on the above sources data and calculations proved to be wrong, as for example France with death rate of 31% should have a final death count over 55,000, Belgium with cited death rate of 38% should have a final death number of over 20,8000, and Sweden with a cited death rate of 42% should have at the end a total death number of over 12,500. Meanwhile with such cited death rate for Brazil (13%) its total death number of 15,668 on May 7, has surprisingly jumped over the past two weeks to over 36,000 and continuing. With such confusing and wrong data, countries such as Mexico has also joined the top list of mortalities currently with the staggering total death number of over 13,000, more than doubling in two weeks from about 5,000 on May 7.
Still the real important and concerning issue should be the number of deaths and not the number of tested positive cases as more than 98% of infected subjects have and will recover. Therefore all the countries, specially those who could not safeguard their people in this massacre and have surprisingly high toll of deaths are responsible towards their people and the relatives of the victims. The big questions is that while the global death rate of COVID is currently at about 10%, and some countries far below that to about 1-2%, how some countries still hold much higher rates of >20%. One may argue that since COVID kills mostly the elderly population, the countries such as USA have more death toll due to their high rate of elderly population. But surprisingly countries such as Japan that holds the highest number of elderly population with 26% currently has only 6% of death toll of COVID with a small number of 914 deaths, while US with a less elderly population rate of only 16% boasts currently with over 112,000 deaths, more than 100 times of Japan. The same hold truth with Brazil, the 8th most industrialized nation in the world with only 9% elderly population rate currently catching up in the COVID death race with over 36,000, while its neighbour Argentina with 11% elderly population rate could be proud to have a small number of only 656 mortality from COVID19.
In the following table, I have tried my best to conclude a final estimate of mortality rates of top countries that is different than the previous table cited from the above official sources. In this new table while the previous top 20 countries in the COVID death race are still hanging there, three other countries, Pakistan, Chile and Indonesia by the end of pandemic will push down Switzerland to ranking 23 from 20th on the last death rate table.
|Current death rate rank||Country||Total Deaths
|Projected Final Total Deaths||Projected final death rank|
Lastly as some might know, COVID has had at least a good outcome and that is the cleansing the air, water and environmental pollution as the wild life have been observed more in the cosmopolitan suburbs due to the lockdowns and absence of humans from such scenes to cause pollutions. Videos similar to the following (Whale coming to St. Lawrence River close to Montreal) of wildlife appearance close to humans’ vicinities could be seen in so many countries.
Dr.Mostafa Showraki, MD, FRCPC
Lecturer, School of Medicine, University of Toronto